Trade Gap in U.S. Probably Widened as Imports Outpaced Exports By Shobhana Chandra Oct. 9 (Bloomberg

for foreign goods outstripped demand for American-made goods abroad. Higher oil prices, Gains in production and the need to replenish depleted inventories mean imports probably kept flooding into the U.S. following a record leap in July. More than $2 trillion in government stimulus programs are reviving demand from Asia to Europe, ensuring American factories also benefit from growing sales overseas as the dollar falls. “It’s a Global-recovery story, and a bit of an oil-price story,” said Scott Brown , chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “We’re seeing a rebound in both exports and imports. There are good signs around the world that the recession is likely over, and we’re on our way to a recovery.” The Commerce Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the survey ranged from deficits of $29 billion to $35.3 billion. Costlier foreign oil probably lifted the import bill. A barrel of crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange Cost an average $71.14 in August, up 11 percent from the July average of $64.33. Oil climbed to $71.69 a barrel yesterday. Imports also were boosted by the biggest monthly Gain in U.S. consumer spending since October 2001. Stock-Market Gains The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has climbed for four consecutive days this week and posted its biggest back-to-back quarterly rally since 1975. The dollar yesterday fell to its lowest level since August 2008 against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners. The U.S. likely saw a return to growth in the third quarter after contracting in the prior six months, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, as the Obama administration’s $787 billion stimulus package started to have some effect. The Euro area is stabilizing after governments injected billions into the 16-nation region’s economy through tax cuts and spending incentives. Gross domestic product in the area fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter after a 2.5 percent drop in the prior three months, the European Union reported this week. The Chinese government is spending 4 trillion yuan ($590 billion) to stimulate the world’s third-largest economy. IMF Forecast The International Monetary Fund, which in the past year has shored up economies from Iceland to Pakistan, on Oct. 1 lifted its Global forecast. The world will expand 3.1 percent next year, compared with a July estimate of 2.5 percent, the lender said. The IMF raised the outlook for China, which may grow 9 percent in 2010, compared with 1.7 percent growth in J.P.n, 1.5 percent in the U.S. and 0.3 percent in the Euro region. Companies seeing a turnaround include Alcoa Inc. , the largest U.S. aluminum producer. New York-based Alcoa reported an unexpected third-quarter profit, helped by improving metal prices, job cuts and lower raw-material Costs. Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said the second half of the year is better in many industries and regions. “We do clearly see growth, substantial growth, I might add, in China,” Kleinfeld said on an Oct. 7 conference call, adding that there also is “stabilization in North America.” Bloomberg Survey ======================================== Trade Balance $ Blns ======================================== Date of Release 10/09 Observation Period Aug. ---------------------------------------- Median -33.0 Average -32.8 High Forecast -29.0 Low Forecast -35.3 Number of Participants 76 Previous -32.0 ---------------------------------------- 4CAST Ltd. -32.9 Action Economics -32.0 Aletti Gestielle SGR -33.7 Argus Research Corp. -33.5 Banesto -33.0 Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi -34.8 Barclays Capital -34.0 BBVA -30.9 BMO Capital Markets -31.0 BNP Paribas -35.0 BofA Merrill Lynch Resear -34.5 Briefing.com -31.0 C I T I C Securities -33.0 Calyon -33.0 Capital Economics -34.0 CIBC World Markets -35.0 Citi -30.0 ClearView Economics -30.5 Commerzbank AG -32.0 Credit Suisse -32.0 Daiwa Securities America -29.0 DekaBank -32.5 Desjardins Group -32.8 Deutsche Bank Securities -33.0 Deutsche Postbank AG -32.8 DZ Bank -33.3 First Trust Advisors -29.3 Fortis -32.1 FTN Financial -31.0 Goldman, Sachs & Co. -33.0 Helaba -34.0 Herrmann Forecasting -32.7 High Frequency Economics -35.0 HSBC Markets -34.0 Ibersecurities -34.0 IDEAglobal -32.5 IHS Global Insight -33.5 Informa Global Markets -33.8 ING Financial Markets -30.0 Insight Economics -33.5 Intesa-SanPaulo -33.0 J.P. Morgan Chase -34.6 Janney Montgomery Scott L -31.0 Jefferies & Co. -30.5 Johnson Illington Advisor -31.0 Landesbank Berlin -35.0 Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc -33.0 MFC Global Investment Man -33.0 Mizuho Securities -35.0 Moody’s Economy.com -32.9 Morgan Keegan & Co. -35.3 Morgan Stanley & Co. -34.0 National Bank Financial -33.4 Natixis -33.0 Nomura Securities Intl. -31.3 Nord/LB -32.5 PNC Bank -34.0 Raymond James -33.0 RBC Capital Markets -30.0 RBS Securities Inc. -32.0 Ried, Thunberg & Co. -33.0 Schneider Foreign Exchang -34.0 Scotia Capital -34.0 Societe Generale -33.0 Standard Chartered -33.0 Stone & McCarthy Research -32.5 TD Securities -32.5 Tullett Prebon -32.5 UBS -34.0 UniCredit Research -34.0 University of Maryland -32.2 Wells Fargo & Co. -33.7 WestLB AG -33.0 Westpac Banking Co. -33.5 Woodley Park Research -31.2 Wrightson Associates -33.0 ======================================== To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: October 9, 2009 00:00 EDT